Author guest post from Mike Murtagh.

In these febrile days, we might be forgiven for wondering whether we are living through the old Chinese curse – that we might live ‘in interesting times’. Escalating tensions, particularly between Russia and the West as a result, primarily, of the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, are contributing to an atmosphere of suspicion and, sometimes hysteria on both sides. This atmosphere is exacerbated by the soundbite-grabbing and sabre-rattling of the politicians that generates more heat than light.

Certainly, the most obvious and urgent threat to the West appears to emanate from Russia. Putin’s long-stated aim of re-creating the old Russian Empire (not the Soviet Union, a common misinterpretation) has observers speculating about where his forces might strike next. The Baltic States? Poland? Moldova? Obviously, some of the possibilities engender fears of an all-out war between NATO and Russia but the general situation is beset with complications that make it not as clear-cut as the politicians and media might have us believe.

It surprises me sometimes that some people, who perhaps should know better, continue to propound the old Cold War image of the Russian ‘steamroller’ that will inexorably crush any opposition it faces. This is a perplexing viewpoint when we consider the fact that the much-vaunted Russian forces, far from mercilessly sweeping all before them, are stuck on basically the same front line that they reached 3 years ago, with no sign of significant progress being made anytime soon. Indeed, although since recaptured, they actually conceded territory inside Russia for the first time since WW2. The idea that they are imminently about to ‘steamroller’ Poland – even without the NATO guarantees that Poland enjoys – is, frankly, ludicrous, even without taking into account the considerable losses in manpower and materiel inflicted by Ukraine over the last 3 years. The same could be applied to the threat to the Baltic States, although it could be argued that they might be under more direct threat. However, when trying to guess the intentions of Russia’s leaders, it would be wise to take great account of Churchill’s famous quote – ‘Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.’ Consequently, what happens next is impossible to predict.

With a leader such as Vladimir Putin, whose entire reputation and political appeal to the Russian people are based on ‘restoring’ the power and prestige of the old Russian Empire, the undoubted humiliations suffered at the hands of Ukraine and, by association, The West, might make him feel like he is being painted into a corner. The great imponderable is to what extent he will feel like a cornered animal and how will he react accordingly? The obvious problem is that this particular cornered animal is sitting on a stockpile of nuclear weapons and, given what we know of Putin’s health and character, would he be prepared to risk a nuclear exchange with The West when he feels he has nothing to lose? Would he be prepared to dip his toe into the situation and test Western resolve by using tactical battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, rather than risking an all-out intercontinental nuclear exchange?

Throw in the naked threat of a resurgent China and its intentions towards Taiwan and others in its proximity and beyond into the mix and it appears we certainly do live in ‘interesting times.’ Or are we already too late?

‘Si vis pacem, para bellum.’ – ‘If you want peace, prepare for war.’

Order Spying on the Kremlin here.